[AGL] what fun!

[Hans-Peter OTTO]

Thanks for posting Mike, and greetings to Madelon. Very interesting assessments! DT´s action regarding Corona are pitiful, inept and downright dangerous for Citizens. Vote him outa here!


> On 15. Sep 2020, at 14:46, Michael Eisenstadt <eisenstadt0 at gmail.com> wrote:
> 
> What fun! A presidential election.
> 
> Prof. Alan Lichtman has successfully called recent elections and famously predicted that Trump would win in 2016.
> Currently he predicts that Biden will win in a blow-out. His best indicator is the state of the economy. If the economy is doing poorly even a sitting president will lose. For example, Carter in 1980. Seeing as the economy was booming before the pandemic, that would have secured Trump's reelection. But the economy is not booming therefore Biden wins. Could be. Of course the pandemic might be a black swan effect.
> 
> The Trafalgar Group, a polling company, also correctly predicted 2016. I have been checking their polls daily. They are only covering a select number of states. See attached. I am guessing that their rationale for this selection is that those states are the bellwethers of the outcome. Their earlier poll of Minnesota had Biden over Trump 49 to 44. Their later poll of Minnesota had Biden 46.9 to Trump 46.5 from some weeks ago.  Check the Trafalgar predictions yourself at https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/
> 
> If Trump carries the nothern tier of post-industrial states, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota - and all the red states in the south and mid-west, Florida, Texas, Missouri, Arkansas, Alabama, South Carolina, North Carolina, Tennessee, Kansas, Iowa, Nebraska, Indiana, the Dakotas, Montana, Idaho he will be re-elected. Nevada is a toss-up which is why Trump just campaigned there. New Mexico, Colorado and Virginia will go for Biden.
> The dates of these polls is significant.
> 
> The Trafalgar Group just added a North Carolina presidential poll conducted 09/09/20 - 09/11/20, just a week ago. It has Trump at 47.8% and Biden at 46.1. If correct, as NC was a toss-up recently, it suggests that as the race is tightening up the trend is towards Trump.
> 
> Trump voters are fully aware of Trump's glaring deficiencies, the most salient that he is a practiced liar. OTOH, of those issues Trump claims to be pursuing, these standout: no illegal immigration, winddown foreign wars, preside over booming economy, lower taxes, reduce needless bureaucratic regulation, pacifiy North Korea, reject the notion that the American polity practices systemic racism and others. Can it be that in spite of his offensive persona, voters will hold their nose and vote their interests and convictions?
> 
> Wife Madelon is unhappy with Trump's laissez-faire attitude towards the environment. I keep reminding her that the US has reduced its carbon footprint very significantly in recent years: natural gas replacing coal, etc. And that it is India and China who are the world's great polluters.
> 
> Biden has warned voters that if Trump is reelected, America witll burn down. Trump points out that forest management, i.e. removing the fuel, is the solution whether or not the climate is warming. We learn that feather Indians practiced forest managment to some extent before the palefaces came and that forest fires back then consumed far more acreage than the fires currently burning in the west.
> 
> Thank you for your time.
> 
> 
> <Trafalgar.jpg>