[AGL] here's an interesting comment from the New York Daily News

[fmaverick at austin.rr.com]

In some weird way, this makes me feel better. It is the elephant in the room that was acknowledged, then covered with invisible fairy dust. I THINK that this is a worst case scenario. I also think that the Obama people are taking all of this into consideration and are very cleverly doing everything possible to counteract the elephant poop. We may see a very close race, but we will win, thanks to the fact that Obama hired the smartest people on the planet. 
---- Michael Eisenstadt <mike.eisenstadt at gmail.com> wrote: 

> But here's the thing. Even if we accept the conclusions of those who assert 

> that, when we run the numbers, race is not depressing black candidates' 

> Election Day performance, lessons learned from non-national contests, where 

> black candidates sought to become mayor, governor or senator, are of little 

> use this time around.

> 

> With all due respect, none of these offices comes close to matching the 

> symbolic heft of the presidency.

> 

> The President is the man (or woman) we see every day. The one who stands for 

> us in meetings with foreign leaders. Who commands the military. Who guides 

> us through hard times. In short, he is the repository of the nation's hopes 

> and fears. To the nation, he is government personified; to the world, he 

> represents the American nation. Since childhood, people generally revere the 

> office, if not the officeholder.

> 

> There is another factor: undecided voters. As of last week, Pew estimates 

> that roughly 8% of the electorate have yet to settle on a candidate.

> 

> And as Larry Hugick observed in a 1993 report on contests between candidates 

> of different races in the '80s and '90s, the overperformance of white 

> candidates may be accounted for by undecided voters, most of whom were 

> white. Likewise, once we consider the makeup of current undecided voters, we 

> should expect them to side with McCain. They're 80% white, more than half 

> have never attended college and more than 50% have seen their 50th birthday.

> 

> We have never had a black man run on a presidential ticket before, so 

> statistical analyses cannot help us much. It could well be the case that 

> when some white Americans, especially those who claim to be indecisive, go 

> into the voting booths, they will hesitate to vote for Obama.

> 

> Under these circumstances, one should not be shocked to discover that, in a 

> few key swing states - if that's what this comes down to - some racists may 

> be misrepresenting their intentions to pollsters and reveal their true 

> preference for Republican John McCain on Tuesday. As a result, we could be 

> surprised. The polls may be wrong. And race may wind up the reason why.

> 

> It would be naive to believe that race won't, in some way, affect the 

> outcome of this election. The question is whether it'll ultimately cost 

> Democrats the contest.

> 

> Parker is assistant professor of political science at the University of 

> Washington and the author of the forthcoming book "Fighting for Democracy: 

> Race, Military Service, and Insurgency during Jim Crow."

>