[Austin-ghetto-list] Emotions versus careful analysis

[Michael Eisenstadt]

Roger,

You forwarded a very interesting analysis which
concluded that Iraq directed the plot.

To my mind there is a reason which makes this
an impossible conclusion.

When Iraq was making this decision, did not the following
overwhelming danger present itself?

What danger, you ask?

The danger that if Iraq was revealed as behind this 
act -- which is always a possibility -- was not Iraq 
terribly exposed to retaliation?

Of all the Arab states Iraq is the most developed
in terms of infrastructure and therefore the most 
exposed to massive retaliation. They would have to 
be crazy to sign off on this because of the danger to 
themselves and they are not crazy. They are secularists 
and gangsters, not religious and not bent on suicide.

To my mind this alone makes your essayist's conclusion 
totally impossible.

Your essayist is also overlooking the negligible amount
of money that was required for the operation. He is
right to be impressed by the engineering of the deed
but the inference he draws from this -- that a state
must be behind it -- is a false inference because he
has lost sight of how cheap it was to do.

I would appreciate it if you would respond
to my argument here.

Mike