The Real Story?

[telebob x]

Oh jesus I hate it how everyone is sucked into this game....

This is a long piece, but very interesting.  It points out that the 
so-called Arab Rage is actually just now being created.  Sure they never 
liked us, but rage was a bit strong.  What we are really caught up in is an 
ingenious gambit by Bin Laden to use the USA to overthrow the Saudi royal 
family and declare himself the Mahdi.  The more he damages us, the bigger a 
heroe he becomes...the real Arab Rage is Ben Laden's hate for the present 
rulers of Saudi Arabia.....  read on....to me this was like the light coming 
on....Bernays could take lessons from Bin Laden...  he is amazing.  And by 
the way....he MUST die, or we are in even bigger trouble...though we will 
have trouble aplenty even if he is martyred....I'm telling you, the 
involuntary sex change is the only real solution....

tele





Historical House of Saud Intrigue

By Paul Michael Wihbey The author is strategic fellow at the
Institute for Advanced Strategic and Political Studies in Washington
DC.

CONTRARY to much of the conventional wisdom about Osama bin Laden,
the Saudi fugitive is hardly a madman. In fact, he has developed a
stunningly deceptive regional war calculus that stands a reasonable
chance of success. Despite the massive build-up of allied forces, bin
Laden's strategy depends on a set of well-conceived geopolitical
assumptions that he fervently believes can turn Western military
capability to his strategic advantage. His strongest belief is that
Saudi Arabia can be brought to its knees, the House of Saud deposed
and a new theocracy, based on his version of a pure and
uncontaminated Islam, can rise to power in the Arabian peninsula.

Hoping to seize state power as Ayatollah Khomeini did in Iran in
1979, bin Laden plans to use Afghanistan as a staging ground for
self-declared leadership in exile. The overriding goal is to return
to Saudi Arabia in triumph and put an end to the existing regime.
Such an accomplishment would dramatically tilt the Middle Eastern
balance of power in favour of radical forces led by Iraq, Iran, Syria
and, of course, the global terrorist network.

Even before the attacks on New York and Washington, bin Laden's power
was felt at the highest level of the Saudi regime. Several days
before the September 11 attacks, the Saudi chief of intelligence, who
held that post for 25 years, Prince Turki, brother of the Saudi
foreign minister, was abruptly fired from his post. Turki was hardly
a man to be dismissed in such fashion; he was responsible for Saudi
affairs with Afghanistan and Pakistan, and the Saudi liaison with
American intelligence services. It seems that Turki was the first
high-ranking victim of a power struggle between two competing
factions in the Saudi royal family over how to deal with American
requests to neutralize bin Laden. Turki's removal from authority
portended further upheaval within the ruling elite of the House of
Saud. Only two weeks later, and a week after the attack on America,
reliable reports strongly suggest that the ailing King Fahd flew to
Geneva with a massive entourage and now remains secluded behind the
heavily protected walls of private estates registered in the name of
his European business partners.

To bin Laden, King Fahd's departure can only be considered a victory
in his campaign to rid Saudi Arabia of the contamination of American
rule through their surrogates in the House of Saud. With King Fahd's
health maintained on a 24-hour medical watch, and the Saudi royal
family divided between the conservative, religious faction of Crown
Prince Abdullah and that of the defence minister, King Fahd's full
brother, Prince Sultan, Saudi Arabia's future political course and,
with it, the stability of the Gulf is about to be decided. Bin Laden
has waited for this since 1991, when he was cast aside by the Saudis
for offering his fighting forces in defence of the kingdom against
Saddam Hussein.

Bin Laden is intimately aware of the fragility of the Saudi power
structure. He is the scion of a family, led by his father, Mohamed,
that, in the mid-1960s, engineered the transfer of the Saudi throne
away from the corrupt King Saud to the pious King Faisal. In effect,
Mohamed bin Laden was a king-maker and his son grew up with an
intimate knowledge of the personal proclivities and weaknesses of the
senior members of the ruling elite. He came to despise what he saw as
a corrupt and malignant power structure indistinguishable from the
American political system. Undeterred by deference and loyalty, he
understood that the legitimacy of the Saudi royal family could be
undermined by championing an alternative, indigenous religious
ideology.

Large numbers of young disaffected Saudis felt increasingly alienated
by a regime that could neither defend itself by its own means nor
maintain a standard of living that has dropped from $18,000 per
capita in the1980s to $6,000 in 2000. With a deteriorating economic
and political environment, bin Laden may decide that the time is
approaching to activate the thousands of Saudi dissidents in the
kingdom who form the core of his support, and thereby exploit the
schism between Abdullah and Sultan to launch the destabilization of
the Saudi monarchy. Militant protests and even subversive military
action targeting oil terminals and pipelines, as well as attacks on
civilian and military American assets in Saudi Arabia, could disrupt
American war plans and force them to think again about targeting bin
Laden, the Taliban and regional terrorist networks.

It is this scenario of internal Saudi confusion and political
instability that bin Laden considers the soft underbelly of American
strategy. The more it is seen that the Saudi royal family can no
longer maintain internal cohesion and consensus within the royal
family, the greater the probability that Saudi religious dissidents
will heed the call of bin Laden and rise up against the regime. Such
a scenario provides a clear escape route for bin Laden from the
closing ring of fire around Afghanistan. Should he be able to escape
and seek refuge among the thousands of supporters in Saudi Arabia, he
will no doubt be greeted as a Mahdi, whose arrival on the sacred soil
of Saudi Arabia will mark a dramatically new geopolitical landscape.
The radicalisation of Iran by the ayatollahs pales by comparison.
Possibilities of widespread regional conflict may emerge as the
latest military equipment and the vast reserves of Saudi oil become
available to facilitate bin Laden's strategic goal - to destabilise
and undermine the Western economic system.

  A Response to Bin Laden's Objective: FYI. Bobby Wagnon spent
considerable time in Saudi Arabia. He also attended the U.S. Air War
College with the Saudi ambassador to the U.S. who remains a close
personal friend.

This is, in my view, sobering food for thought. My read on this: I
don't think Osama bin Laden is a madman. In fact, I think he is very,
very bright, but filled with hate. I also think he believes he can
use our Western military actions against Afghanistan to unite Muslims
worldwide, but especially on the Arabian peninsula, and most
importantly, get all Westerners out of Saudi Arabia. That logic
being, an attack against one Muslim is an attack against all Muslims.
I think the only reason the Western nations had such a strong Muslim
coalition during Desert Storm was they were afraid Iraq could/would
defeat them, so the lesser of the evils was to unite with the Western
nations.

Remember, President Bush chose not to continue into Iraq after the
Iraqis left Kuwait because he knew he would lose the coalition's
support and he, probably wisely, chose to shut the war down, although
a lot of Americans' are critical of his decision. Had they been in
his shoes, they would probably have done exactly what he did. Osama
bib Laden's take on the House of Saud (present royal family) being
weakened is right on track. I recently read that King Fahd, whose
health has been deteriorating for years, is now truly ailing.
Approximately two weeks after the 9/11/01 terrorist attack in New
York, King Fahd took a group of his closest friends/advisors and left
the Kingdom and moved to safer Geneva, Switzerland. The royal family
has now become somewhat divided. Assuming King Fahd is totally
removed from his leadership soon, the selection of the next king is
creating a battle between the conservatives and liberals. Crown
Prince Abdullah is very conservative and, from my years in Saudi,
appeared almost anti-western.

Even back in the '80s, there was speculation that Prince Sultan, who
is eligible for king after Prince Abdullah, might have royal family
support to elect Prince Sultan king and bypass Prince Abdullah
completely. Prince Sultan is a full brother of King Fahd, and is more
liberal and pro Western. Remember, Prince Sultan's son, Prince Bandar
bin Sultan, has been the Saudi Ambassador to America for over 20
years and is very pro Western and respected by Western leaders. Also
Prince Sultan's oldest son, Prince Kahlid bin Sultan, as a Saudi
three star general, commanded all the Muslim forces during Desert
Shield and Desert Storm. Prince Kahlid recently retired as a
four-star general, the first royal family member to ever reach
four-star rank. So, you can see why Prince Sultan would be the
western world's choice to become king rather than Crown Prince
Abdullah.

With King Fahd gone, I believe there is a reasonable chance that the
Saudi royal family might split over the selection of the next king.
The void created by the split could open the door to takeover by
Osama bin Laden. He probably has the support of thousands of Saudi
religious dissidents. Those dissidents support Osama bin Laden's
desire to have only Muslims in Saudi Arabia, thus allow an
uncontaminated Islam in Saudi Arabia. Prince Turki was recently
removed as Chief of Saudi Intelligence. I met him in 1981 and found
him to be brilliant. I was shocked to hear of his removal from a most
critical job.

Another area of great concern to Osama bin Laden and all Muslims are
the two holiest cities of Mecca and Medina, both in Saudi Arabia.
Mecca, the most holy city of Islam was the birthplace of the prophet
Muhammad in AD 570. Devout Muslims throughout the world turn toward
Mecca in prayer five times each day. Every Muslim hopes to make a
hajj, or pilgrimage, to its shrine at least once. Non-Muslims are not
permitted to enter its gates. Medina, the second holiest city in
Saudi Arabia, is the site of prophet Mohammed's tomb. Osama bin Laden
prefers to have Saudi rid of all but Muslims. I was well aware of the
difficult time the leadership went through after the first King Abdul
Aziz Al-Saud died in 1953 and was replaced by King Saud ibn Abdul
Aziz. There were Royal family disagreements, and Crown Prince Faisal
assumed legislative and executive authority from King Saud by Royal
Decree in 1958. In 1960 King Saud resumed his authority and Crown
Prince Faisal presided over a new cabinet as the Prime Minister of
Saudi Arabia. Then, in 1964 Crown Prince Faisal was proclaimed King
of Saudi Arabia as a result of the consensus of the people of Saudi
Arabia, the royal family, the Ulama, and the Bedouin tribes of the
Kingdom. King Faisal marked the beginning of a new era in Saudi
Arabian history.

The Kingdom has continued to westernize and grow since the beginning
of King Faisal's leadership. King Faisal was assassinated in 1975 and
Crown Prince Khalid ibn Abdul Aziz became King in 1975. I have a
picture of Col Jim Emory and me shaking hands with King Khalid on
Christmas Day, 1980. King Khalid continued with the Second Five Year
Plan which represented an immense stride forward by the Kingdom. When
King Khalid died in 1982 Crown Prince Fahd ibn Abdul Aziz became King
of Saudi Arabia. Harvey, Saudi Arabia is a monarchy in which Islamic
law serves as the constitution. The king, in order to rule, must
obtain the support of the royal family, which is believed to have
several thousand members. Royal princes hold all the key national
security positions, though a growing number of technocrats from
outside the family operate government departments concerned with
economic and social development.

I guess the bottom line is that if the royal family can't speak as
one, the Saudi religious dissidents might just open the door for
Osama bin Laden to overthrow the royal family and become the Mahdi.
The Mahdi is the Muslim Messiah and to the religious dissidents,
Osama bin Laden may just fill that void/need. Enough of my history
lesson. I don't believe down deep that Osama bin Laden will ever
become the leader of Saudi Arabia, but if it were to happen, I can
see the price of oil raised to over $100 per barrel, and that would
throw the western world into a rapid recession that would make the
1929 American stock market crash look like a kid's broken toy. We
would be in one hell of an economic mess very quickly.

Bobby D at ease, shelbro


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